Iran on the Brink
Regime change, as it is taking place in Iran now, is no small matter. In a tiny banana republic, it is much simpler and can occur quickly. In a geographically large and populous nation, it is much more complicated and takes much more time, especially if the regime is totalitarian, entrenched, and willing to use lethal violence against its own population and anyone else trying to overthrow it.
Many regimes have been overthrown in modern history, but the campaign now underway in Iran has several unprecedented aspects. It is primarily these novel factors that are causing regime change to occur at an unpredictable pace.
Most casual observers would point to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military actions as the catalyst for Iran’s internal turmoil. But the current uprising was actually precipitated by the “maximum pressure” campaign deployed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who engineered a dollar shortage in Iran. As a result, a major Iranian bank collapsed in December 2025.
This suddenly disrupted Iranian business markets and led to a shutdown of most trade in central Tehran. The Central Bank of Iran was forced to print more money, causing the cost of food and fuel to skyrocket. Many Iranians in Tehran took to the streets in protest.
This had occurred several times before in recent decades, but it had always been brutally suppressed by the Islamic Republic regime using its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to attack, imprison, torture, and murder protesters.
Iran is a large nation with a population of more than 90 million persons, of which about 95 percent oppose the totalitarian religious government that has ruled the country for nearly five decades. During that period, the radical Islamic ayatollahs and mullahs established a religious dictatorship and created layers of control over the people through security forces outside the military.
The Iranian army, which the regime inherited from the previous government led by Shah Reza Pahlavi, participated in the 1979 revolt and cooperated with the ayatollahs and mullahs. But the regime did not trust it to suppress the population by force, and so separate security forces, including the IRGC, were created for that purpose.
In recent years, the Iranian currency has become almost worthless as a result of an increasing number of sanctions placed on Iran by the United States. But Iran’s immense resources of oil and gas were still exported to Europe and Asia and paid for in dollars. This meant that the ruling elites, the IRGC, the army, and the government bureaucracy remained affluent.
The regime also used oil and gas revenue to create a massive military complex, including a formidable navy, air force, and missile program. It began enriching uranium at weapons-grade levels with the ultimate aim of creating nuclear missiles. It also funded proxy jihadist groups in Gaza and the West Bank (Hamas), Lebanon (Hezbollah), Yemen (Houthis), militants in Iraq, and the Assad regime in Syria.
Earlier this year, recognizing the imminent threat of a nuclear-armed Iran, the U.S. and Israel deployed overwhelming military force to destroy Iran’s navy and air force, as well as the regime’s ability to build and deploy missiles. This action followed a surprise strike by the United States last year to destroy Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facility. The elimination of most of the regime’s political, military, and police leaders, as well as most of its weapons scientists, marked the first stage of regime change.
The second stage began with the U.S. cutting off shipments of Iranian oil and gas – the economic lifeblood of the regime – which had been transported through the Strait of Hormuz. This has been successful and further presents the regime with a grave crisis over where to store the oil they are pumping from their wells. Very soon, they will have no place to store the oil. If they stop pumping, the wells can no longer be used in the future.
The third stage will occur when the fractured regime, now dominated by the IRGC, is sufficiently weakened for the armed resistance of Iranians to take over the cities and towns of Iran — and the capital. This stage has already begun with systematic sabotage of regime resources and personnel that air strikes cannot reach.
The final stage will require the army to disconnect from the regime, refuse to attack or suppress the Iranians resisting the IRGC, and join the already existing anti-regime forces now united under the leadership of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.
That group of anti-regime forces was organized recently in London to bring all democratic Iranian political factions, some of which hold very different plans for the nation’s future, together. They devised a detailed plan to guide the post-regime temporary government for several months until the Iranian electorate could choose their new permanent government and constitution via a referendum.
After only a few days of U.S. ships blockading traffic to and from Iran, the existential economic crisis for the Iranian dictatorship is plain to see.
There will be celebrations and relief when the jihadist regime falls. But that might be premature because the most difficult stages will likely be the subsequent interim period, when the various political groups will be preparing for the referendum and the period after that when a permanent Iranian democracy will be established.
Before then, much needs to happen. We are now near the end of stage two. The media in the U.S., most of Europe, and Asia are, and have been, hostile to this conflict to liberate Iran. This stokes impatience and outright opposition to the U.S.-Israeli efforts in American public opinion and elsewhere.
Beneath an ongoing cacophony of words, the leadership of the U.S. and its Israeli partner is displaying a powerful, disciplined, and determined resolve.
With the U.S. midterm elections less than six months away and Israeli general elections less than a year away, the final goal of regime change needs to be, and likely will be, reached sooner than later.
